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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to LV 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.11 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP