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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 29, Center-47-T.Sieg. 21-M.Hughes ran ob at KC 38 for 9 yards (5-D.Deablo).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 31, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model