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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model