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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(14:53) (Punt formation) 5-T.Townsend pass short left to 85-M.Kemp to LV 37 for 16 yards (35-B.Facyson).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model