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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 34

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model