Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(:45) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to KC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg. 21-M.Hughes to KC 46 for 37 yards (6-A.Cole). FUMBLES (6-A.Cole), RECOVERED by LV-87-F.Moreau at 50. LV-45-A.Ingold was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model