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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 6-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.52 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model