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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2021-11-14 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

MIN
46.6%
LAC
53.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.159 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.139 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 25
–
LAC 27
Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIN

Anthony Barr LB Out Knee
Michael Pierce DT Out Elbow
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Groin

LAC

Ryan Smith CB Out Knee
Michael Davis CB Doubtful Hamstring
Justin Jackson RB Doubtful Quadricep
Joey Bosa LB Questionable Ankle
Mark Webb S Questionable Knee
Nasir Adderley S Questionable Ankle
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 27
–
LAC 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:18 FG MIN (14:18) 1-G.Joseph 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 3 – LAC 0
  • Q2 11:33 FG LAC (11:33) 6-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. MIN 3 – LAC 3
  • Q2 06:42 FG MIN (6:42) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 6 – LAC 3
  • Q2 03:30 TD MIN (3:30) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – LAC 3
  • Q2 01:33 TD LAC (1:33) 35-L.Rountree up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – LAC 9
  • Q3 10:44 TD LAC (10:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – LAC 16
  • Q3 02:39 TD MIN (2:39) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Ogbongbemiga]. LAC-32-A.Gilman was injured during the play. MIN 19 – LAC 17
  • Q4 09:34 TD MIN (9:34) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 33-D.Cook left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 26 – LAC 17
  • Q4 04:40 FG LAC (4:40) 6-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. MIN 27 – LAC 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 39%

    (11:47) 3-J.Berry punts 40 yards to LAC 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 17 for 9 yards (85-D.Chisena).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 13 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:51) 1-T.Long punts 59 yards to MIN 27, Center-54-M.Overton. 12-D.Westbrook to LAC 28 for 45 yards (50-C.Christiansen).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 46%

    (5:21) 1-T.Long punts 32 yards to MIN 13, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 83%

    (14:18) 1-G.Joseph 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 84%

    (11:33) 6-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (6:42) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:11) 3-J.Berry punts 42 yards to LAC 36, Center-42-A.DePaola. 7-A.Roberts to 50 for 14 yards (45-T.Dye, 42-A.DePaola).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 44%

    (:32) 1-T.Long punts 35 yards to MIN 11, Center-54-M.Overton, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:25) 3-J.Berry punts 55 yards to LAC 12, Center-42-A.DePaola. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 25 for 13 yards (30-C.Ham; 45-T.Dye). PENALTY on LAC-38-K.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:37) 1-T.Long punts 59 yards to MIN 27, Center-54-M.Overton. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 34 for 7 yards (82-S.Anderson, 36-T.Marshall).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (2:39) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Ogbongbemiga]. LAC-32-A.Gilman was injured during the play.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:47) 1-T.Long punts 57 yards to MIN 15, Center-54-M.Overton. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 32 for 17 yards (80-M.Ffrench; 35-L.Rountree).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (4:40) 6-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 68%

    (2:32) 33-D.Cook right end to LAC 32 for 4 yards (98-L.Joseph). LAC-99-J.Tillery was injured during the play.