Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 20

(1:47) 1-T.Long punts 57 yards to MIN 15, Center-54-M.Overton. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 32 for 17 yards (80-M.Ffrench; 35-L.Rountree).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model