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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 33-D.Cook right end to LAC 32 for 4 yards (98-L.Joseph). LAC-99-J.Tillery was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.50 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model