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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 1-T.Long punts 32 yards to MIN 13, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model