Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tennessee Titans 6

(5:11) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to TEN 35, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 44 for 9 yards (55-K.Elliss, 48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.35 EP
61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model