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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2021-11-14 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NO
34.3%
TEN
65.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Trevor Siemian (NO): -0.092 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NO 19
–
TEN 25
Projected margin: TEN by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Knee
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S Out Foot
Alvin Kamara RB Out Knee
Carl Granderson DE Questionable Shoulder
Ty Montgomery WR Questionable Hamstring

TEN

Dane Cruikshank S Out Knee
David Long LB Out Hamstring
Greg Mabin CB Out Ankle
Rashaan Evans LB Questionable Ankle
Julio Jones WR Questionable Hamstring
Teair Tart DT Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 21
–
TEN 23

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:55 FG TEN (:55) 14-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. NO 0 – TEN 3
  • Q2 13:04 TD NO (13:04) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right to 10-T.Smith for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – TEN 3
  • Q2 07:47 FG TEN (7:47) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. NO 6 – TEN 6
  • Q2 01:41 TD TEN (1:41) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – TEN 12
  • Q3 12:07 TD TEN (12:07) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 85-M.Pruitt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – TEN 19
  • Q3 04:00 TD NO (4:00) 14-M.Ingram right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 12 – TEN 20
  • Q4 10:06 FG TEN (10:06) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. NO 12 – TEN 23
  • Q4 05:35 FG NO (5:35) 6-B.Johnson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 15 – TEN 23
  • Q4 01:20 TD NO (1:20) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right to 1-M.Callaway for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 21 – TEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:13) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NO 34, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 31%

    (9:30) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to TEN 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:14) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to NO 47, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Harris ran ob at TEN 49 for 4 yards (21-M.Farley).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (:55) 14-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 92%

    (7:47) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:11) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to TEN 35, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 44 for 9 yards (55-K.Elliss, 48-J.Gray).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:10) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to TEN 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on NO-24-D.Washington, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at TEN 33.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 13 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:12) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to NO 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:27) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to NO 27, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:31) 4-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to TEN 27, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%

    (10:06) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.94 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (5:35) 6-B.Johnson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:41) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NO 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.