Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to TEN 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on NO-24-D.Washington, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at TEN 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.50 EP
61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model