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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to TEN 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model