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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 12 – Tennessee Titans 23

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 6-B.Johnson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +3.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.94 EP