Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 23 – New Orleans Saints 15

(3:41) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NO 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.68 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model