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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 9

Green Bay Packers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 2-M.Crosby 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model