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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2021-11-14 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 3.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

SEA
41.6%
GB
58.4%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • SEA on 7 more days rest than GB
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.148 EPA/dropback in prior starts (GB starting Aaron Rodgers in place of Jordan Love)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21
–
GB 25
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

SEA

Blessuan Austin CB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Cody Barton LB Out Quadricep
Marquise Blair S Out Knee
Al Woods DT Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

GB

David Bakhtiari T Doubtful Knee
Dominique Dafney TE Doubtful Hamstring
Kingsley Keke DE Doubtful Concussion
Eric Stokes CB Questionable Knee
Kenny Clark DT Questionable Back
Equanimeous St. Brown WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 0
–
GB 17

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:35 FG GB (9:35) 2-M.Crosby 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. SEA 0 – GB 3
  • Q4 10:42 TD GB (10:42) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – GB 9
  • Q4 02:00 TD GB (2:00) 28-A.Dillon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – GB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 87%

    (10:53) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to GB 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-Am.Rodgers pushed ob at GB 22 for 9 yards (56-J.Brooks).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (6:17) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 17 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 21%

    (3:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to GB 7, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:59) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to SEA 49, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 37%

    (:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to GB 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (9:35) 2-M.Crosby 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 29%

    (7:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to GB 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 17 for 4 yards (19-P.Hart).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 66%

    (1:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (22-T.Brown). Yard marker changed due to change in possession

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to GB 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at GB 13 for no gain (29-J.Reid).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:02) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to SEA 38, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to GB 22, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 38 for 16 yards (58-T.Muse).