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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.47 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP