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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to GB 7, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model