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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model