Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- MIN offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to MIN: Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.143 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.135 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
GB
MIN
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:22 FG GB (13:22) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 3 – MIN 0
- Q1 09:19 FG MIN (9:19) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. GB 3 – MIN 3
- Q1 01:51 TD MIN (1:51) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 33-D.Cook up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – MIN 9
- Q2 07:43 TD MIN (7:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – MIN 15
- Q2 00:38 TD GB (:38) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 81-J.Deguara for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – MIN 16
- Q3 08:31 TD MIN (8:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – MIN 22
- Q3 03:43 TD GB (3:43) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – MIN 23
- Q4 07:55 TD GB (7:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-97-E.Griffen, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 23 – MIN 23
- Q4 02:24 TD MIN (2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – MIN 29
- Q4 02:17 TD GB (2:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – MIN 31
- Q4 00:02 FG MIN (:02) 1-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. GB 31 – MIN 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 68%
(13:22) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 15 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%
(9:19) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
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Q1 GB 4th & 17 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(5:15) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.
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Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%
(11:19) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
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Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:11) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 12-D.Westbrook MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 12. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 20 for 8 yards (41-H.Black).
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Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 72%
(4:25) 3-J.Berry punts 45 yards to GB 26, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(:16) 3-J.Berry punts 33 yards to GB 35, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.