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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 3-J.Berry punts 45 yards to GB 26, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP