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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.18 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model