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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2021-11-21 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

IND
34.6%
BUF
65.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.233 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.169 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

IND 19
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

IND

Shaquille Leonard LB Questionable Ankle

BUF

Tremaine Edmunds LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 41
–
BUF 15

Prediction missed by 33 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:59 TD IND (8:59) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – BUF 0
  • Q1 01:48 TD IND (1:48) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-J.Taylor for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – BUF 0
  • Q2 10:48 TD BUF (10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – BUF 6
  • Q2 02:16 FG IND (2:16) 6-M.Badgley 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 17 – BUF 7
  • Q2 02:03 TD IND (2:03) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – BUF 7
  • Q3 05:33 TD IND (5:33) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 30 – BUF 7
  • Q3 01:02 TD IND (1:02) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 37 – BUF 7
  • Q4 12:48 TD BUF (12:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 38 – BUF 13
  • Q4 06:27 FG IND (6:27) 6-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 41 – BUF 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (2:16) 6-M.Badgley 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 12 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%

    (:03) 2-T.Bass 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:39) 3-M.Haack punts 55 yards to IND 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines to IND 25 for 7 yards (69-R.Ferguson, 22-M.Breida).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 20 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 47%

    (10:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 31 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 73%

    (8:18) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. IND-49-M.Adams was injured during the play. M.Adams walks off.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (6:27) 6-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 85%

    (:27) (Shotgun) 35-De.Jackson up the middle to BUF 21 for 3 yards (50-G.Rousseau).