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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 38 – Buffalo Bills 15

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 6-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model