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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to NYJ 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 48 for 19 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.60 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model