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Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2021-11-21 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIA
55.9%
NYJ
44.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (NYJ): -0.071 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NYJ starting Joe Flacco in place of Mike White)
  • MIA on 3 more days rest than NYJ

Predicted Final Score

MIA 24
–
NYJ 22
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

MIA

Andrew Van Ginkel LB Questionable Back
Christian Wilkins DT Questionable Quadricep

NYJ

Zach Wilson QB Doubtful Knee
Nathan Shepherd DT Questionable Knee
Alijah Vera-Tucker G Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 24
–
NYJ 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:09 TD MIA (9:09) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 37-M.Gaskin. 17-J.Waddle left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 03:04 TD NYJ (3:04) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – NYJ 6
  • Q3 09:16 TD MIA (9:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – NYJ 7
  • Q3 03:10 TD NYJ (3:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – NYJ 13
  • Q4 10:23 TD MIA (10:23) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 37-M.Gaskin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-J.Franklin-Myers]. NYJ-57-C.Mosley was injured during the play. MIA 20 – NYJ 14
  • Q4 02:00 FG MIA (2:00) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 24 – NYJ 14
  • Q4 00:18 FG NYJ (:18) 6-M.Ammendola 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. MIA 24 – NYJ 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 26%

    (6:22) 7-B.Mann punts 38 yards to MIA 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (3:04) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:05) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to NYJ 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 31 for 9 yards (49-S.Eguavoen).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (9:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (6:49) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to MIA 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-16-J.Smith.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:19) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to NYJ 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 48 for 19 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 66%

    (1:10) 6-M.Ammendola 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 48%

    (11:28) 7-B.Mann punts 33 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-86-R.Griffin.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 89%

    (5:30) 6-M.Ammendola 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:58) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to NYJ 21, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 21.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:58) 7-B.Mann punts 38 yards to MIA 49, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.