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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 43

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 7-B.Mann punts 33 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-86-R.Griffin.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.01 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model