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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 22

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 6-M.Ammendola 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.59 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model