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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 87

New York Jets 14 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 7-B.Mann punts 38 yards to MIA 49, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 87, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 45, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model