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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 52

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 7-B.Mann punts 38 yards to MIA 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.01 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP