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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to NYJ 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 31 for 9 yards (49-S.Eguavoen).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model