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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 45
Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 10
What Actually Happened
(9:21) 30-Q.Ollison right tackle to NE 35 for 10 yards (32-D.McCourty).
The Three Options
GO
+1.51 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.15 EP
- 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
KICK
-0.34 EP
- 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
- 54% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
