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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Thursday 2021-11-18 · 20:20 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

NE
55.4%
ATL
44.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NE offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
ATL 21
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NE

Jake Bailey P Questionable right Knee
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Ribs
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Hip
Trenton Brown T Questionable Calf
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
N'Keal Harry WR Questionable Knee
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Ankle
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Abdomen
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Forearm
Jonnu Smith TE Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Groin
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Illness

ATL

Daren Bates LB Out Groin
Hayden Hurst TE Out Ankle
Kendall Sheffield CB Out Hamstring
Jaylinn Hawkins S Questionable Ankle
Cordarrelle Patterson RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 25
–
ATL 0

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:19 FG NE (5:19) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – ATL 0
  • Q2 13:51 TD NE (13:51) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 15-N.Agholor for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – ATL 0
  • Q2 00:05 FG NE (:05) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 13 – ATL 0
  • Q4 06:44 FG NE (6:44) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 16 – ATL 0
  • Q4 02:00 FG NE (2:00) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 19 – ATL 0
  • Q4 01:33 TD NE (1:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Rosen pass short middle intended for 14-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Van Noy at ATL 35. 53-K.Van Noy for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 25 – ATL 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 39%

    (11:51) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to ATL 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:05) 12-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to NE 44, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-G.Olszewski to ATL 46 for 10 yards (92-A.Ogundeji; 17-O.Zaccheaus). PENALTY on NE-22-Co.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 44.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (5:19) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:21) 12-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NE 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 46%

    (9:21) 30-Q.Ollison right tackle to NE 35 for 10 yards (32-D.McCourty).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 19 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 76%

    (6:24) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to ATL 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 18 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:00) 12-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to NE 42, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 42 for no gain (21-D.Harmon; 3-M.Walker). PENALTY on NE-29-J.Bethel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 42.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%

    (:05) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:19) 12-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to NE 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 27 for 17 yards (47-J.Harris).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 35-A.Williams pushed ob at ATL 19 for 11 yards (48-J.Tavai; 36-B.King).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:44) 12-D.Colquitt punts 62 yards to NE 17, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-17-O.Zaccheaus.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (:57) 30-Q.Ollison left guard to NE 16 for no gain (21-A.Phillips; 98-Ca. Davis).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (15:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to ATL 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 20 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 70%

    (6:44) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.