4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model