Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 94

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 12-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to NE 42, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 42 for no gain (21-D.Harmon; 3-M.Walker). PENALTY on NE-29-J.Bethel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 42.

The Three Options

GO -3.54 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.13 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 94, worth -5.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model