4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 27

New England Patriots 10 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(:05) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.49 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model