Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 13

(13:19) 12-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to NE 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 27 for 17 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.36 EP
56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model