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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 48

New England Patriots 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to ATL 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -3.13 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP