Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 13

(9:44) 12-D.Colquitt punts 62 yards to NE 17, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-17-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.45 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model