4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 76

New England Patriots 13 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to ATL 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.83 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP