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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 35

New England Patriots 13 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model