Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 95

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 12-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to NE 44, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-G.Olszewski to ATL 46 for 10 yards (92-A.Ogundeji; 17-O.Zaccheaus). PENALTY on NE-22-Co.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.58 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 95, worth -5.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model