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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 12-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NE 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.16 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model