4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 3-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model