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New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Monday 2021-11-22 · 20:15 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 11.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

NYG
31.1%
TB
68.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Tom Brady (TB): +0.207 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG on 7 more days rest than TB
  • NYG offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
TB 28
Projected margin: TB by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NYG

Lorenzo Carter LB Out Illness
Nate Ebner S Out Knee
Logan Ryan S Out COVID Protocols
Sterling Shepard WR Out Quadricep
Saquon Barkley RB Questionable Ankle
Devontae Booker RB Questionable Hip
Cullen Gillaspia FB Questionable Calf
Kaden Smith TE Questionable Knee

TB

Antonio Brown WR Out Ankle
Vita Vea DT Doubtful Knee
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Back
Dee Delaney CB Questionable Ankle
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 10
–
TB 30

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:09 TD TB (11:09) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 04:09 FG NYG (4:09) 5-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 3 – TB 7
  • Q2 11:20 FG TB (11:20) 3-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. NYG 3 – TB 10
  • Q2 09:19 TD NYG (9:19) 78-A.Thomas reported in as eligible. 8-D.Jones pass short left to 78-A.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-L.David]. NYG 9 – TB 10
  • Q2 05:12 TD TB (5:12) 27-R.Jones left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – TB 16
  • Q3 07:35 TD TB (7:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – TB 23
  • Q3 03:58 FG TB (3:58) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. NYG 10 – TB 27
  • Q4 07:48 FG TB (7:48) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. NYG 10 – TB 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 14 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (4:09) 5-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (11:20) 3-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to TB 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 86%

    (12:27) 74-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-C.Johnson.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 89%

    (3:58) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 89-K.Toney pushed ob at TB 48 for 7 yards (45-D.White).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:37) 8-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to NYG 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (7:48) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to TB 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-95-Q.Roche.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 20 at the 91 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:33) 8-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to TB 49, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 38 for -7 yards (sack split by 49-C.Gill and 79-P.O'Connor).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 69%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 11-B.Gabbert pass short right to 18-T.Johnson ran ob at NYG 26 for 8 yards.