4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 55

New York Giants 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 38 for -7 yards (sack split by 49-C.Gill and 79-P.O'Connor).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.82 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP