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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 11-B.Gabbert pass short right to 18-T.Johnson ran ob at NYG 26 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP